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Preseason Friday night offers four wagering options
2010-08-27
The third full week of the NFL preseason got off to a scintillating start on Thursday night as the two contests produced a whopping 158 points. Does that mean we’re in for an explosive weekend of OVER betting? Typically, this week on the schedule gets the higher posted totals, since starters see the most playing time, but let’s be honest, Thursday’s results were ridiculous. Let’s take a look at the four games on tap for Friday to see if we can’t uncover any betting edges. Visit Sportsbook.com for the latest lines and game betting information.
Atlanta (1-1) at Miami (2-0), 7:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: EVEN Total: 37.5
The Falcons’ first-team offense has yet to find the end zone through two preseason games, settling for a pair of FGs, one in each game. The team has scored just 30 points overall in its 1-1 start. Miami hasn’t exactly lit it up either though, mustering just 273.5 yards per game. Still, the Dolphins are 2-0, mostly by virtue of enjoying a 6:1 turnover edge.
Strangely, oddsmakers are giving the Falcons the benefit of the doubt in this one, listing the game as a pick em’ in Miami. That could prove to be beneficial for bettors who believe in systems like this one from StatFox: Play On - Underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, in the last two weeks of the preseason. (75-39 since 1993.) (65.8%, +32.1 units. Rating = 2*).
Washington (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1), 7:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: New York -4.5 Total: 35
After an impressive 42-17 victory over the Bills in their opener, the Redskins were humbled by their neighbors from Baltimore, 23-3, last week. Donovan McNabb completed just 11-of-26 throws against the Ravens and will sit out the game against the Jets because of an ankle injury, meaning backup quarterback Rex Grossman will start and likely play into the third quarter.
The Jets failed to find the end zone in a 9-3 win over the Panthers, gaining just 112 yards of total offense. Fortunately for the Jets, they only allowed 175 yards and forced 5 turnovers.
The Redskins may have a tough time scoring this week facing the vaunted Jets defense and as a franchise, they haven’t been very good on the road in the preseason anyhow: WASHINGTON is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. The average score was WASHINGTON 12.7, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 3*).
San Diego (1-1) at New Orleans (1-1), 8:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: New Orleans -3 Total: 42.5
The third preseason game is traditionally when the starters see the majority of the action, and the game on Friday night’s board that has the best potential to match Thursday’s shootouts is that between the Chargers and Saints from New Orleans. It is an intriguing matchup that will be nationally televised on CBS.
After posting a 25-10 win over the Bears, the Chargers dropped a 16-14 decision to the Cowboys in their second preseason outing. The Saints bounced back from their opening loss to the Patriots by routing the Texans 38-20. The defending Super Bowl champs piled up 198 yards on the ground.
In terms of trends, San Diego is on a 10-1 ATS preseason run when coming off of a home loss. They are also 9-0 OVER the total when allowing less than 200 yards in the previous game. The Chargers yielded just 194 to Dallas last weekend.
Philadelphia (1-1) at Kansas City (0-2), 8:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 37.5
I’m admittedly not a fan of playing road favorites in the preseason, unless of course, the home team has demonstrated an indifference to winning or losing. That doesn’t figure to be the case for the Chiefs, who are 0-2 but trying to build momentum and develop chemistry under their reworked coaching staff. They have actually outgained their first two opponents, both on the road by 41 yards per game.
Philadelphia is 1-1 in the exhibition campaign thus far and coming off a 22-9 loss at the hands of Cincinnati. The Eagles turned the ball over five times in that game. They have become accustomed to struggling against the AFC at this time of year:
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 22.8, OPPONENT 28.2 - (Rating = 1*)
This game boasts one of the top StatFox systems of the week, and it suggests that K.C. is due for a bounceback performance:
• Play On - Home underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread. (21-5 since 1993.) (80.8%, +15.5 units. Rating = 2*)
NFL Preseason Week 3 kicks off Thursday
2010-08-25
It’s commonly believed that that the third full week of the NFL preseason is the “dress rehearsal” for the regular season openers. Most coaches will go with their expected starters for up to three quarters of the action. Therefore, you would think that bettors who have been studying their materials over the offseason would be well prepared for what happens this weekend. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the two games that will jumpstart the schedule. According to oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com, New England is a 7.5-point favorite over St. Louis, and Green Bay is laying 3.5-points to Indy at home.
St. Louis (1-1) at New England (2-0), 7:30 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: New England -7.5 Total: 37.5
Coming off a pair of rough performances, number one overall pick Sam Bradford is expected to get the start at QB for the Rams due to thumb and elbow injuries to starter A.J. Feeley. Bradford has completed just 44 percent (12-27) of his passes so far and has yet to find the end zone. On the bright side, he has not thrown a pick either.
The Patriots have displayed a balanced run-pass attack in winning their first two preseason games over the Saints and the Falcons. Veterans Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris both topped 50 yards against the Falcons and both scored on TD runs of 20 yards or more. Meanwhile, Tom Brady completed 10 of 12 passes for 85 yards and a TD to rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez. Fellow rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski also caught a TD pass courtesy of backup QB Brian Hoyer.
The Patriots are an obvious favorite in this matchup, but there are conflicting handicapping signs from StatFox demonstrating their ability to cover the rather large number in this contest.
First off, this system suggests the Rams are due for a bounceback:
That angle boasts a perfect 6-0 ATS record over the last three seasons, including 1-0 last weekend.
Still, statistically speaking, this game could be a mismatch. The Rams were outgained by 188 yards per game in their first two preseason affairs, while New England has outscored its foes by 10.5 PPG in going 2-0 SU & ATS. As such, the StatFox Game Estimator calls for a 31-11 rout.
Indianapolis (0-2) at Green Bay (1-1), 8:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Line: Green Bay -3.5, Total: 44
The Colts travel to Green Bay Thursday night still looking for their first win of the preseason. They are infamous for not typically giving a hoot about what happens in these games, but it is apparent that oddsmakers and bettors are expecting a different type of effort today. For one, the Colts are only a 3.5-point dog at Lambeau Field after playing as 4-point dogs at home against San Francisco and in Toronto against the Bills. For two, the line actually opened as Green Bay -4, but has dumped a half-point since.
Peyton Manning played five series and led the Colts to a pair of TD (one rush, one pass) in the first quarter of their 34-21 loss to the Bills last Thursday, but also had an INT returned 78 yards for a score. The Colts D surrendered a pair of long first-quarter scores: a 31-yard run and a 70-yard pass. Backup Curtis Painter bounced back from a dismal opener to complete 5-of-6 passes for 97 yards, including a 43-yard TD strike to Taj Smith.
The Packers dropped their preseason opener to the Browns 27-24, but bounced back to beat the Seahawks by the same score in their second game. Through two games, Aaron Rodgers is already in midseason form, having completed 20-of-24 attempts for 275 yards and 3 TD without an INT. Backup Matt Flynn has not been as sharp, connecting on 19-of- 35 for 199 yards and 2 INT without throwing a TD. He’s also been sacked three times to Rodgers’ none.
It’s difficult to think the Colts would go winless in the preseason again. Consider this system from FoxSheets:
However, this game also has a large statistical imbalance, like the Patriots-Rams game. Perhaps a play on the total makes more sense:
Football betting: A look at college football's opening week
2010-08-25
While most of college football's elite squads are involved in projected mismatches to begin the season, there are a few contests that should be quite competitive. The marquee attraction will be on Labor Day night in Landover, Maryland when 5th-ranked Boise State will square off against 6th-ranked Virginia Tech. The Broncos have gone undefeated in each of the last two regular seasons but haven't had to face a team like the Hokies during the stretch.
While Virginia Tech's fans won't have to travel far to watch the matchup, Boise State is a 2.5-point favorite in the battle. Broncos quarterback Kellen Moore fired 39 TD passes in 2009 to lead the offense. The Hokies counter with running back Ryan Williams. He burst on the scene to rush for 1,655 yards as a freshman in 2009. Another top 25 battle will highlight the schedule on the first evening of the season on Thursday, September 2nd.
The 15th-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers will head west for a matchup against the 24th-ranked Utah Utes in Salt Lake City. The home team is a 3.5-point choice in the game. While dynamic running back Dion Lewis (1,799 yards in 2009) is back for the Panthers, the club will have to break in a raw quarterback to replace Bill Stull. Utah would like to make a statement against a Big East squad before moving over to the Pac-10 in 2011.
The football betting will really get cranked up two days later in the first Saturday of the year. There will be 29 booked games on Saturday, September 4th. A couple of top 25 contests will top the slate. In Atlanta, the 16th-ranked LSU Tigers will line up against the 18th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels in an SEC-ACC battle. Both teams are expected to have two of the better defenses in the country. Each squad has some question marks on offense heading into the opener. The Tigers are a narrow 1.5-point favorite in a game that should draw plenty of football betting interest.
At Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, 7th-ranked TCU will make the short trip from Fort Worth to take on the 22nd-ranked Oregon State Beavers. The Horned Frogs had a perfect regular season in 2009 before falling to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. The Beavers are a 13.5-point underdog in the opener. The club will have to go with an untested quarterback after the graduation of quarterback Sean Canfield. The top 4 teams in the initial top 25 poll of the season are overwhelming favorites in the first week of the season.
Top-ranked Alabama will begin its national title defense at home against the San Jose State Spartans. As a 39.5-point favorite, Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram who’s line at www.sportsbook.com has him listed as the early favorite to repeat as Heisman winner at +350, and his teammates will likely have this game wrapped up by halftime. On the opening Thursday, the 2nd-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes will host the Marshall Thundering Herd. Behind star quarterback Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State is a 29-point favorite in the contest.
With the Buckeyes possibly looking ahead to a matchup on September 11th against 13th-ranked Miami-Florida, Marshall could pull out a cover in the second half. On Saturday, the 3rd-ranked Florida Gators will move on from the Tim Tebow era in Gainesville against the Miami-Ohio Redhawks. Against a team that won just a single game in 2009, Florida has the right opponent to break in new starting quarterback John Brantley. The Gators are a 34.5-point favorite in the mismatch.
After coming up short in last year's BCS title game, the Texas Longhorns will open the 2010 campaign at Reliant Stadium in Houston against the Rice Owls. The former Southwest Conference rivals are clearly on different ends of the college football landscape. in 40 meetings since 1966, Rice has been able to post just a single win against Texas. Sophomore quarterback Garrett Gilbert will try to continue the recent signal-caller success (Vince Young and Colt McCoy) for the Longhorns. Texas is a 28.5-point favorite against the overmatched Owls.
There are a couple of other top 10 mismatches on the opening Saturday involving a pair of Big 12 schools. 8th-ranked Oklahoma is a 32-point choice over Utah State in Norman while the 9th-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers are expected to cruise in Lincoln as a 35.5-point favorite over a Western Kentucky squad that has lost 20 consecutive games.
Football betting: NFC East/North Regular Season Wins Predictions
2010-08-25
Over under lines from www.sportsbook.com the home of NFL betting.
The Dallas Cowboys (O/U: 10) are hoping to become the first team to ever play in its own stadium at a Super Bowl this season. After gaining a victory in the playoffs last year for the first time since, Dallas could be poised to make a deeper postseason run in 2010. Quarterback Tony Romo leads a balanced offense. The club will need to improve its red zone offense this season after ranking just 14th in the league in scoring offense last year despite finishing 2nd in the NFL in total offense. The schedule appears to be one of the most difficult slates in the league this season. The Cowboys will have to battle five teams on the road that reached the playoffs in 2009. Dallas fails to meet football betting expectations for an under.
The New York Giants (O/U: 8.5) struggled to a 3-8 finish in its final 11 contests of 2009 after a 5-0 start. The collapse of the defense was the main problem for New York. After ranking 5th in the NFL in scoring defense in 2008, the Giants slipped to 30th in the category last year. On offense, quarterback Eli Manning has enabled New York to finish in the top 8 in total offense in each of the last two years. Like Dallas, the Giants must face five playoff squads from 2009 away from home. Once again, New York fails to produce a winning season for an under.
It's a new era for the Philadelphia Eagles (O/U: 8.5) after the offseason trade of veteran quarterback Donovan McNabb. Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick will be counted on to keep Philly's offense moving in 2010. Under McNabb, the Eagles finished in the top 6 in the NFL in scoring offense in three of the last four seasons. With the exception of a trip to Dallas, Philadelphia won't face a team on the road that went to the postseason in 2009. After recording just one losing campaign in the last decade, the Eagles win at least nine games again for an over.
New Washington Redskins (O/U: 7.5) head coach Mike Shanahan is hoping that McNabb will boost a franchise that posted only two winning seasons in the last decade. While the defense has ranked in the top 10 in the league in total defense in each of the last three seasons, the offense has struggled in recent years. McNabb will certainly help but the lack of other playmakers on offense will doom the Redskins to an under in the difficult NFC East.
In the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers (O/U: 10) are looking to build on last year's trip to the playoffs. After ranking in the top 6 in total offense and defense in 2009, the club appears to be strong enough on both sides of the ball to make a run at a Super Bowl bid in 2010. While there are a few difficult road games on the schedule, Green Bay is good enough to get over the number this season.
The Minnesota Vikings (O/U: 9.5) are still waiting on a decision from quarterback Brett Favre. While many football betting skeptics are quick to dismiss Minnesota's hopes without Favre in 2010, the club did win ten games en route to a division crown in 2008 without him. Running back Adrian Peterson and an outstanding defensive line could enable the Vikings to contend this year, if Favre shuts it down. For the third straight year, Minnesota wins at least ten contests for an over.
After being the most aggressive team in free agency this offseason, the Chicago Bears (O/U: 8) are hoping to challenge the Packers and Vikings in the NFC North. While the addition of Julius Peppers will aid the defense, the unit still has some question marks heading into this season. On offense, the lack of quality wide receivers will hinder the club's air attack. Chicago suffers through another losing campaign for an under.
The Detroit Lions (O/U: 5) have been limited to just two wins over the last two seasons. With the recent draft choices of quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, Detroit has the potential to build something down the line. This year, Detroit improves a little but not enough to avoid an under.
Football betting: Colts favored to win Super Bowl XLV
2010-08-25
Despite coming up short in last year's Super Bowl, the Indianapolis Colts enter the 2010 NFL campaign as the favorite to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. In the football betting lines at www.sportsbook.com, the Colts are a +700 choice to win a championship. Led by MVP quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis has won 12 or more games in the regular season in each of the last seven years. However, the Colts have been able to cash in with only one Super Bowl title back in 2006. This season, Indy will face a challenging stretch following a bye in week 7.
After the bye, the Colts will play seven straight games against squads that finished .500 or better in 2009. Five of those games will be against clubs that went to the postseason last year. The franchise that will showcase its home stadium in Super Bowl XLV is the top contender from the NFC. The Dallas Cowboys (+800) are looking to take the next step in 2010 after gaining a playoff win in 2009 for the first time in over a decade. With a talented and balanced squad, the Cowboys could be ready to be an elite club in 2010. There could be a potential Super Bowl preview in week 13 when the Cowboys travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts.
In the prior week, Dallas will entertain the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving Day. New Orleans listed at www.sportsbook.com at (+800) is the third top contender in the Super Bowl pool. Quarterback Drew Brees leads an explosive offense for the Saints. While the defense gave up plenty of yards last season, the unit had a knack of creating big plays with turnovers. After opening at home against Minnesota in a rematch of the NFC Championship game, New Orleans will face only one playoff team from 2009 over its next nine games.
The San Diego Chargers are the next choice at +1000. San Diego has won four straight AFC West titles but has been unable to reach a Super Bowl during the stretch. In a division that appears to be the weakest in the conference, the Chargers have a decent shot to gain home field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. San Diego will only have to face four teams this year that reached the postseason in 2009. The Green Bay Packers (+800) appear to have made a nice transition from the Brett Favre era after making the playoffs last year behind emerging quarterback Aaron Rodgers. If the Packers are going to become a legitimate contender in 2010, the club will need to matchup better against the Vikings (0-2 vs. Minnesota in 2009).
In a period of under a month, Green Bay will face defending NFC North champion Minnesota twice. The first meeting will be a Sunday night contest at Lambeau Field in week 7. In week 11, the Packers will battle the Vikings at the Metrodome.
The New England Patriots (+1200) were the NFL's top squad in the last decade with three championships. However, the Patriots last Super Bowl crown was back in 2004. Quarterback Tom Brady will try to get his club back to the top this season in a deep AFC field. In its first seven games of the season, New England will face five teams that reached the playoffs in 2009.
A popular team in football betting circles heading into 2010 is the Baltimore Ravens (+1200). Behind young quarterback Joe Flacco, the Ravens have reached the postseason in each of the last two years as a Wild Card. While Baltimore has won three road playoff games since 2008, the team would like to take an easier path this season as a division champion. The addition of veteran wideout Anquan Boldin should enable the Ravens offense to be a little more dangerous this season. Baltimore's initial five road games of 2010 will be against squads that posted winning records in 2009.
The Super Bowl hopes of the Minnesota Vikings (+1200) could be derailed before the season begins. If Brett Favre decides not to return for a second year with the Vikings, Minnesota will have to rely on a couple of marginal quarterbacks in 2010. Without Favre, the Vikings go from a legitimate title contender to a squad that will have to battle just to reach the playoffs.
Football betting: Colts favored to win Super Bowl XLV
2010-08-24
Despite coming up short in last year's Super Bowl, the Indianapolis Colts enter the 2010 NFL campaign as the favorite to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. In the football betting lines at www.sportsbook.com, the Colts are a +700 choice to win a championship. Led by MVP quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis has won 12 or more games in the regular season in each of the last seven years. However, the Colts have been able to cash in with only one Super Bowl title back in 2006. This season, Indy will face a challenging stretch following a bye in week 7.
After the bye, the Colts will play seven straight games against squads that finished .500 or better in 2009. Five of those games will be against clubs that went to the postseason last year. The franchise that will showcase its home stadium in Super Bowl XLV is the top contender from the NFC. The Dallas Cowboys (+800) are looking to take the next step in 2010 after gaining a playoff win in 2009 for the first time in over a decade. With a talented and balanced squad, the Cowboys could be ready to be an elite club in 2010. There could be a potential Super Bowl preview in week 13 when the Cowboys travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts.
In the prior week, Dallas will entertain the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving Day. New Orleans listed at www.sportsbook.com at (+800) is the third top contender in the Super Bowl pool. Quarterback Drew Brees leads an explosive offense for the Saints. While the defense gave up plenty of yards last season, the unit had a knack of creating big plays with turnovers. After opening at home against Minnesota in a rematch of the NFC Championship game, New Orleans will face only one playoff team from 2009 over its next nine games.
The San Diego Chargers are the next choice at +1000. San Diego has won four straight AFC West titles but has been unable to reach a Super Bowl during the stretch. In a division that appears to be the weakest in the conference, the Chargers have a decent shot to gain home field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. San Diego will only have to face four teams this year that reached the postseason in 2009. The Green Bay Packers (+800) appear to have made a nice transition from the Brett Favre era after making the playoffs last year behind emerging quarterback Aaron Rodgers. If the Packers are going to become a legitimate contender in 2010, the club will need to matchup better against the Vikings (0-2 vs. Minnesota in 2009).
In a period of under a month, Green Bay will face defending NFC North champion Minnesota twice. The first meeting will be a Sunday night contest at Lambeau Field in week 7. In week 11, the Packers will battle the Vikings at the Metrodome.
The New England Patriots (+1200) were the NFL's top squad in the last decade with three championships. However, the Patriots last Super Bowl crown was back in 2004. Quarterback Tom Brady will try to get his club back to the top this season in a deep AFC field. In its first seven games of the season, New England will face five teams that reached the playoffs in 2009.
A popular team in football betting circles heading into 2010 is the Baltimore Ravens (+1200). Behind young quarterback Joe Flacco, the Ravens have reached the postseason in each of the last two years as a Wild Card. While Baltimore has won three road playoff games since 2008, the team would like to take an easier path this season as a division champion. The addition of veteran wideout Anquan Boldin should enable the Ravens offense to be a little more dangerous this season. Baltimore's initial five road games of 2010 will be against squads that posted winning records in 2009.
The Super Bowl hopes of the Minnesota Vikings (+1200) could be derailed before the season begins. If Brett Favre decides not to return for a second year with the Vikings, Minnesota will have to rely on a couple of marginal quarterbacks in 2010. Without Favre, the Vikings go from a legitimate title contender to a squad that will have to battle just to reach the playoffs.