Online Football Wagering
Monday Night Football Preview: Giants vs. Cowboys
2010-10-25
Sportsbook.com Monday Night Football Betting Odds: Dallas -3, Total: 45
The Cowboys remain desperate for a win, as they’ve dropped two straight games while the Giants have been one of the NFL’s hottest teams with three consecutive victories. The New York pass rush (21 sacks) should give Dallas fits. The Cowboys don’t allow many sacks (seven) but, like the rest of the team, commit a lot of penalties. Dallas is on pace to be the second team in NFL history to average 80-plus penalty yards per game – a stat that can not be ignored by the NFL betting population.
There is some injury news to report and it is all good news. New York WR Hakeem Nicks has been dealing with a bad hamstring all week, but says he will play Monday night. DL Justin Tuck and K Lawrence Tynes have both fully recovered from ankle injuries and will both suit up for this game. For Dallas, WR Dez Bryant will also play despite being limited in practice this week with an ankle injury of his own.
New York is winning in spite of Eli Manning’s highest interception rate (3.9%) since his rookie year, with eight interceptions in six games. The Cowboys have picked off 12 Manning passes in 11 career meetings, but Manning is 6-5 in those contests with 20 TD, a 57.6% completion rate and 221 passing YPG. He threw for 330 yards in a 33-31 win in the first regular-season game at Cowboys Stadium last year. Nicks leads the team with 36 catches, 417 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
Tony Romo has had success against New York, with a 64% completion rate, 204 passing YPG, 16 TD and 10 INT in nine career games against the Giants. But he threw three of those picks in last year’s home loss to New York and the Giants entered the week ranked second in the NFL in both total defense (265 YPG) and passing defense (172 YPG). The Cowboys defense has been nearly as effective as New York, ranking fourth in the league in both total defense (281 YPG) and passing defense (181 YPG). Dallas needs to create more opportunities for the offense as it has forced a league-low four turnovers this season.
The Giants are 4-1 ATS & SU in the past five meetings in the series, but this football betting trend indicates why point spread bettors should be on Dallas:
Play On - Home teams (DALLAS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record. (24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*).
If you are looking to bet on the Giants vs. Cowboys total, this betting trend leans ‘under’:
Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - off 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG). (45-17 since 1983.) (72.6%, +26.3 units. Rating = 3*).
To check on tonight’s Monday Night Football betting odds or to check out the NFL Week 8 betting lines, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
2010 NFL Betting Tactics
2010-08-23
The 2010 NFL season is drawing closer day by day which means that there are going to be many people who’d be interested in earning a share from their favorite team’s wins too. Then there’d be those who’re new to the whole art of betting for a NFL team. This article gives a basic way of tackling betting in NFL.
Most betters have some predetermined idea when they are betting. They always have something specific in their mind to move forward. And what this article’s function is to further set and seal this bet so as to increase the probability of winning for those who’re betting.
If you think your team has a chance at winning then you need to keep a few tabs in your mind to help you in betting in the future. Pick all your matches the same way as you do but the team should have a minimum of 52.5 percent edge over the other teams so as to break even. This means that a team that is given 11, 12 or 13 points is a team to be looked out for. Remember to go through the NFL schedule so as to have an idea of the underdogs who are playing at home. Now what needs to be done is to contrast the surface of the stadium of the team which is playing at home versus the stadium surface of the team playing away is used at playing on. This makes betting for a team easy because then what you only need to do is choose the home underdog team since they have a lesser advantage in winning at a new turf.
Some other things that you need to look before betting for a certain NFL team are –
1. The team has won a minimum of at least one game at home and away.
2. The team has a positive yielding/winning ratio probably a 63 percent or more.
3. The team should not be last in defense or offense in their division.
You need to set only a reasonable amount of money for every game especially if you are a beginner. You need to have a certain grasp of the game before you begin a full-fledged betting on NFL. Unadventurous betting would keep you safe while increasing your profit even though it would be a slow start. Betting is exciting. So if you want a good 2010 NFL season, bet with caution and keep your cool under stress. Head over to www.sportsbook.com the home of Football Betting today and get in on the action.
NFL: ARIZONA vs. NEW ORLEANS (4:30 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-15
After surviving Green Bay in the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history, the defending NFC champion Cardinals will head to New Orleans accompanied by the highest posted postseason total since at least ’92. That number for this divisional playoff clash has been set at 57 at Sportsbook.com, with the host Saints installed as TD favorites. Not surprisingly, bettors are on the OVER at a 4-1 rate, but interestingly, 62% are actually siding with the underdogs.
The Saints are the #1 seed, but come in on a 3-game losing streak after starting 13-0. New Orleans is 11-4 SU & 9-5-1 ATS at home over the L2 seasons and has scored 32.1 PPG in those. The Cardinals have played their best football on the road this season, going 6-2 SU & 4-3-1 ATS while yielding just 17.4 PPG. They have covered five straight playoff games. These teams have only met twice since ’00, with the host team taking both SU & ATS.
After 90 points and 1,024 yards of offense, a strip/sack by Michael Adams in overtime and the ensuing fumble return by Karlos Dansby catapulted Arizona past Green Bay, 51-45, in the highest-scoring playoff game in NFL history.
As far as the Cardinals opponent, the NFC’s top-seeded New Orleans Saints are concerned, only one positive could come out of Arizona’s wild win that featured a Hall of Fame performance by Kurt Warner, who completed 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and five touchdowns. That glimmer of light would be the switch that Arizona flicked on after a 3-3 finish in the regular season. New Orleans, like the Cardinals, enters its first playoff game on a slide, having watched a 13-0 start deteriorate into a 13-3 finish.
Drew Brees finished second to Peyton Manning in the NFL MVP voting, tying a career-high with 34 touchdown passes, while throwing a personal-low 11 interceptions in 514 attempts. No quarterback in the NFL, aside from possibly Manning and Warner, uses as extensive a collection of receivers as Brees. Regardless of who’s in the lineup, Brees will throw the ball. Seven different receivers have pulled in at least 39 passes, and the list doesn’t even include Lance Moore, who missed nine games after catching 79 balls last season.
Warner, too, makes the most of the players around him in the huddle. Steve Breaston and Early Doucet combined for 13 catches, 202 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers, taking on plenty of extra snaps due to Anquan Boldin’s absence (ankle/knee). Last season’s playoff hero, Larry Fitzgerald, scored twice on his six catches, helping Warner improve his career playoff record to 9-3. He’s also got an eye-opening touchdown-to-interception ratio of 31-to-13.
As explosive as New Orleans’ offense is, however, it’s the play of running backs Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell that often dictate the direction of a game. In the Saints’ first 11 wins, the ground attack averaged 151.4 yards per game. Beginning in Week 13, however, when things started to unravel in Washington, the Saints averaged a mere 95 yards on the ground in the final five games.
PREDICTION: The Cardinals are as live a road underdog as any after racking up a 6-2 mark away from University of Phoenix Stadium. And last week’s 51-point output had to be chilling for any Saints coach, player or fan to watch. Still, if there is one team that Arizona does not want to get into a shootout with, it’s New Orleans. NEW ORLEANS 38, ARIZONA 17
NFL: Sunday Late Afternoon NFL Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2009-10-09
The four late afternoon games in the NFL figure to be a lot more compelling than the entire early menu. Two of the games boast matchups of playoff contenders, while the other two are inter-conference games with home teams hoping to jumpstart their seasons. Here is a look at those two top games, with a prediction on one of them. You can get all the info you need on the full lineup on the BETTING TRENDS, LIVE ODDS, & TEAM STATISTICS pages on Sportsbook.com.
(417) ATLANTA at (418) SAN FRANCISCO
When Atlanta left the NFC West Division in 2002, it meant making fewer trips to San Francisco. That was welcomed news since the Falcons have struggled when visiting the Bay Area, and in fact, are just 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their L11 when visiting the 49ers. That one win came in the most recent trip though, in 2004, and now looks to make it two in row. Atlanta comes in at 2-1 and off its bye week, but the next seven games will make or break its chances for a second straight playoff appearance. San Francisco is 3-1 after knocking off St. Louis and very well could be 4-0. The 49ers seem to be restoring some long lost home field advantage, having gone 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS under Mike Singletary. Atlanta is 9-0-2 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since '99.
(419) NEW ENGLAND at (420) DENVER
There will be plenty of hype surrounding the New England-Denver showdown, for more than the coaching matchup, as Bill Belichick takes on his former offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. Surprisingly, it is McDaniels that is receiving more accolades, with his team atop the AFC West. With a 4-0 SU & ATS record and the NFL’s best defense at 6.5 PPG allowed, the Broncos continue a treacherous 8-game stretch as 3-1/2 point home dogs to the 3-1 Patriots. Belichick’s club is seemingly regaining its footing as QB Tom Brady becomes more comfortable. New England boasts a 25-5 SU & 21-7 ATS record as road chalk of less than a TD in the Belichick era. The L7 games these teams have played in Denver have averaged 48 PPG while going OVER the total six times.
StatFox prediction: Having gotten the chance to watch the full games of both New England & Denver last week, I was impressed with both, but more so the Broncos. This team is not overrated, and if there is one thing I’ve learned about the NFL, its that winning can build some very positive momentum for teams, regardless of the perception of that team. How can anyone discount the fact that Denver has allowed 26 points this year. Not 26 points per game mind you, 26 TOTAL points, easily the best in the NFL at 6.5 PPG. Now, there will be plenty of trend reasons to play the Patriots here because of their past and Bill Belichick over Josh McDaniels, etc, but sometimes, it just makes sense to take stock of the teams as they stand NOW, and analyze whether the pointspread set for the game is right. Here it is not. A 4-0 team outscoring opponents by 13.2 PPG should not be a home dog. Play: Denver +3.5
Super Bowl XLIII: Super Bowl Scuffle, A Prop Debate by Steve Makinen & Doug Upstone
2009-01-27
The “StatFox Super Bowl Scuffle” has become as big of a tradition as parties, commercials, and gambling when it comes to Super Bowl Sunday. Well, not really, but readers do seem to like it, as it is always one of the most popular pieces of the year. This year will mark the fourth edition of the Super Bowl Scuffle, in which StatFox representatives Steve Makinen and Doug Upstone debate the wide array of betting options available on Sunday. So sit back and enjoy. Perhaps the guys can help you uncover a golden nugget buried underneath the excessive options and vigorish.
We’ve taken all of the odds from Sportsbook.com, recognized as the web’s leader in game and prop betting options. All odds are considered (-110) unless noted.
StatFox (Moderator): Hello everybody, and welcome back to another edition of the StatFox Super Bowl Scuffle, the fourth edition of the popular props debate between Steve Makinen, a.k.a StatFox Steve and Doug Upstone, or StatFox Doug. Steve performs a variety of services for StatFox, not the least of which is Managing Editor of the rapidly growing weekly Platinum Sheet publication. Doug is the lead writer for StatFox.com and is an experienced sports handicapper. So, without further ado, I welcome in our distinguished contributors. Good day guys, hope you’re both getting ready for the big game!
StatFox Steve: Hey everyone, hello Douglass, my man, I trust your local Scottsdale stores are keeping the shelves stocked with Arizona Super Bowl gear (and sunscreen)? Up here in frigid Wisconsin I’m just happy I took the plunge and got myself a new snowthrower. Trust me, it’s been put to good use. Nothing breaks the winter up better than Super Bowl Sunday though. I am pumped and ready to roll…I’m sure you’re suffering from Scarlet Fever, so I hope you can take an unbiased look at this year’s game.
StatFox Doug: Steve, it has been hotter than a "cougar convention" at one of the local Scottsdale beverage establishments. While you poor folks in the Midwest and East have suffered with bitterly cold temperatures, we have have people here complaining it's too hot already, with temps 75-80 for weeks. Things have really heated up with the Bird Fever. While much of the country suffered the affects of a recession, being in the Arizona Cardinals jersey and t-shirts business takes away any feelings of a bad economy.
StatFox: Wow, yes, it’s easy to forget that Doug resides in Cardinal Country. We trust Doug will put aside any personal feeling he harbors in the pursuit of gambling happiness on Super Bowl Sunday. So let’s get to it, I’ll list the props, you guys simply tell which option you prefer and why. Best of luck to both of you.
GAME POINTSPREAD
PITTSBURGH -7
ARIZONA +7
SF Doug: I believe this was a very astute line by the oddsmakers. I can see Arizona leading into the second half, before Pittsburgh starts to rattle Kurt Warner and slow down the Cardinals offense. Though I can see Pittsburgh covering, I’ll say Arizona needs two scores, kicks the field goal to trail by six and doesn’t recover onside kick to lose.
SF Steve: Pittsburgh’s shortcomings offensively, and the fact that the better seeds have covered only one Super Bowl in the last 13 years has me leaning toward underdog Arizona here.
GAME TOTAL
OVER 46.5
UNDER 46.5
SF Steve: UNDER. In both of the last two Super Bowl games Pittsburgh has been in, the game went under the total by more than a touchdown. The reason is the pace and physical style of play. The Steelers can’t afford to have this one played any other way.
SF Doug: Between the side and total, definitely prefer to play the Over here. Pittsburgh will move the ball all day and Arizona with two weeks to prepare will have good schemes and have a few surprises. The Steelers win the Super Bowl 30-24, with the total going OVER.
FIRST-HALF LINE
PITTSBURGH -4
ARIZONA +4
SF Doug: The last five Super Bowls have been games with margin of four points or less at halftime and I don’t see that changing. Arizona plus the points.
SF Steve: Arizona +4. Typically, a team like Pittsburgh tends to wear an opponent down over the course of a game. This is the reason you don’t see many First Half Line trends favoring the Steelers when you look at the weekly FoxSheets. It’s hard to envision more than a field goal separating these teams after 30 minutes.
FIRST-HALF TOTAL
OVER 23.5 (-115)
UNDER 23.5 (-105)
SF Steve: UNDER. So far this season, Pittsburgh has scored 56% of its points after halftime, Arizona has scored 53%. Considering I’m leaning towards the UNDER for the full game, taking the OVER at the half simply doesn’t make sense.
SF Doug: I can see both coaches being aggressive wanting to establish the upper hand to get the defenses off balance and 27 points and OVER is my call.
TEAM TO RECEIVE THE OPENING KICK OFF
PITTSBURGH (+100)
ARIZONA (-130)
SF Doug: Tom Brady and the offense will start take the field at the 28-yard line, after the Giants defer to the second half.
SF Steve: ARIZONA. Pittsburgh figures to be the more likely team to defer to its defense if it wins the coin toss. There’s no way the Cardinals will do that.
WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE FIRST 6 MINUTES OF THE GAME
YES (-115)
NO (-115)
SF Steve: YES. I think Arizona has to try to force the issue early in this game. That will mean taking a chance with a long pass or trick play. Thus the chances for an early score are increased.
SF Doug: Yes they will and look for a trick play by either team to be an important reason as to why.
WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE LAST 2 MINUTES OF 1ST HALF
YES (-240)
NO (+180)
SF Doug: I’m going to say No. Though both quarterbacks are capable, coaches tend to be more conservative, preferring to make sure nothing bad happens rather than possibly something good.
SF Steve: NO. This is such a high price to pay, so like last year, I’m not going to fall into the assumption that there is automatically going to be a score before halftime, as it didn’t happen in either of the last two years.
SHORTEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME
OVER 1.5 (+110)
UNDER 1.5 (-140)
SF Steve: UNDER. This prop always gets my attention, and my logic for seemingly always taking the UNDER is the frequency of pass interference calls in the end zone that set the ball up at the 1-yard line. It isn’t the presence or lack thereof power goal-line running backs.
SF Doug: Both teams have been very good in short yardage in the playoffs, though I do not see a one-yard plunge, take the Under.
LONGEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME
OVER 44.5 (-115)
UNDER 44.5 (-115)
SF Doug: With Larry Fitzgerald, Santonio Holmes and even Willie Parker, a big play will happen, bet the Over.
SF Steve: UNDER. Unlike recent Super Bowl games, I don’t think these teams rely on striking the big play. In fact, Fitzgerald is probably the most capable player of beating this number and I consider him more of a possession type receiver than a burner.
TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS SCORED IN THE GAME
OVER 5.5 (+120)
UNDER 5.5 (-150)
SF Steve: UNDER 5.5. The pace of the Super Bowl has slowed in the past four years, and with Pittsburgh’s defense going to be on the field for about half the game, I’d think TD’s will again come at a premium.
SF Doug: In theory, oddsmakers are telling us the final score should be about 27-20, which suggests five touchdowns under normal circumstances. Because I have higher total score, I’ll take the Over with a total of six TDs.
LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME
OVER 14.5 (-120)
UNDER 14.5 (+100)
SF Doug: Not a chance one team bolts to big lead. The familiarity aspect of the coaches will limit any such event, play Under.
SF Steve: UNDER. I will again point to Pittsburgh’s offensive difficulties this season as the reason why they won’t be able to separate from Arizona. On the other side, the Steelers’ defense will keep them in the game if they fall behind.
WILL THE TEAM THAT SCORES FIRST WIN THE GAME?
YES (-200)
NO (+160)
SF Doug: This used to be an automatic in the playoffs in general that the team to score first won 70 percent of the time. But like getting a meal on an airplane, those days are gone, No is the way to go.
SF Steve: NO. In this year’s playoffs, the team that scored first won just four of the 10 games if memory serves. Plus, the price associated with the NO is very attractive.
TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS THROWN BY BOTH TEAMS
OVER 2.5 (+135)
UNDER 2.5 (-170)
SF Steve: UNDER. With two Super Bowl experienced quarterbacks on the field, I don’t think either will be taking many chances. I expect a more careful performance from Roethlisberger this time around.
SF Doug: The two quarterbacks have a total of two in five games in the postseason, unless something really fluky occurs like five tipped passes or something, going Under.
WILL THERE BE A DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TOUCHDOWN?
YES (+145)
NO (-175)
SF Steve: NO. I’ve learned from playing Fantasy Football that whenever you hope for this type of play it doesn’t happen. Only one of the past five Super Bowl games has had a defensive/special teams TD.
SF Doug: Neither special teams are “special” enough and Pittsburgh had its defensive moment two weeks ago, playing No.
TOTAL NET YARDS BY BOTH TEAMS
OVER 666.5 (-115)
UNDER 666.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. The StatFox Game Estimator projects 615 yards of offense in the contest. Considering I’m leaning towards a lower scoring game, and this projection is 51.5 yards shy of the prop, I’ll go UNDER.
SF Doug: Using the simplistic approach of taking the teams averages for yards gained and allowed on the season, it comes out to 622 yards. Good enough for me to play the Under.
CARDINALS - WILL THEY EVER HAVE THE LEAD VS THE STEELERS?
YES (-220)
NO (+170)
SF Doug: The Cardinals might have the lead at halftime and will actually lead at some point of the second quarter.
SF Steve: Yes. Neither team in this matchup is dominant enough where they can be expected to control the game for 60 minutes. I expect a back-and-forth contest and am willing to lay the -220 in that belief.
STEELERS - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 115.5 (-115)
UNDER 115.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. This is a strangely inflated price. Pittsburgh averages 105 RYPG, Arizona yields 105 RYPG, but just 77.3 RYPG in the playoffs. This game will come down to which team makes more plays through the air.
SF Doug: Pittsburgh has surpassed that total twice in the last six games and that was against teams with weaker run defenses. The Steelers will be close, but fall short, play Under.
CARDINALS - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 72.5 (-115)
UNDER 72.5 (-115)
SF Doug: The Cardinals have rushed the ball well in three previous playoff games and not one of those teams is even close to being the Pittsburgh. Over 60 yards probably, but 72.5, don’t think so.
SF Steve: OVER. The Cardinals running backs aren’t blessed with speed but their dedication to the run throughout the postseason suggests at least 25 or so rush attempts.
BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL PASSING YARDS
OVER 230.5 (-115)
UNDER 230.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. I think Pittsburgh needs Big Ben to come up big here, but an OVER in passing yards for him in no way guarantees success against the spread on Sunday. In fact, six of the last seven losing Super Bowl teams passed for 230 yards or more.
SF Doug: The Steelers have averaged 10.8 yards per completion and Arizona has surrendered 10.7 YPC. The oddsmakers are saying suggesting 17.5 completions for Big Ben, which is well Under this listed total doing the math.
BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL COMPLETIONS
OVER 17.5 (-115)
UNDER 17.5 (-115)
SF Doug: OVER. On the season, Pittsburgh has averaged 19 completions and should make that number again.
SF Steve: UNDER. Roethlisberger surpassed the 17-completion mark just five times during the 18-game season. His completion percentage of 59.9% doesn’t warrant it either.
BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES THROWN
OVER 1.5 (-155)
UNDER 1.5 (+125)
SF Doug: Throwing support to the Over, with the Cards corners overaggressive at times and Hines Ward and Heath Miller are money in the red zone.
SF Steve: OVER. A very cautious over. I envision about 2-3 touchdowns for Pittsburgh overall, and I believe it will be up to Big Ben to make these plays.
BEN ROETHLISBERGER - WILL HE THROW AN INTERCEPTION
YES (-145)
NO (+115)
SF Steve: YES. Roethlisberger’s interceptions are more a function of the pressure he has faced this year than his inaccuracy. Arizona figures to pressure him with blitz schemes as much as possible.
SF Doug: YES. Roethlisberger has been a little too clean with the ball and throws one up for grabs in the Big Game.
WILLIE PARKER - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 80.5 (-115)
UNDER 80.5 (-115)
SF Doug: This will be right up against it, however Parker goes Over because of this ability to take off on a 20-yard jaunt.
SF Steve: UNDER. With the way Arizona is stuffing the run in the postseason, it seems unlikely that Parker, and his 3.8 YPR, will surpass 80 yards.
WILLIE PARKER - WILL HE SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
YES (-115)
NO (-115)
SF Steve: NO. With just a handful or so of expected TD’s, taking anyone at even odds just doesn’t make sense.
SF Doug: I have room for another touchdown, so YES, the undrafted free agent hits paydirt.
MEWELDE MOORE - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 15.5 (-115)
UNDER 15.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Moore has four carries for 19 yards in the playoffs, what changes unless Parker is injured. Play Under.
SF Steve: OVER. I like taking change of pace players or specialists on OVER props in the Super Bowl, as I think these players are utilized more to throw a wrinkle into the game plans.
HINES WARD - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 65.5 (-115)
UNDER 65.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. Assuming Ward is at full strength on Sunday, he is Pittsburgh’s biggest playmaker. I expect this former Super Bowl MVP to again play a big role in the game. He surpassed 65.5 yards receiving eight times in Pittsburgh’s 18 games and will be counted on more than usual here.
SF Doug: Not certain if Ward’s injured knee will be 100 percent. If healthy no problem, but I see more underneath and first down catches totaling Under this figure.
HINES WARD – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 5 (+105)
UNDER 5 (-135)
SF Doug: OVER. Check Ward out of sick bay, as he makes six catches and I don’t have to pay juice!
SF Steve: YES. A big time yes if Ward is healthy. The comfort level that Roethlisberger has with Ward in unmatched on the Pittsburgh roster and he will be thrown to a lot.
SANTONIO HOLMES - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 58.5 (-115)
UNDER 58.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. Unless Holmes hits a 40+ yard play, I just don’t see him being that big of a factor as the second receiver, or third if you count Heath Miller.
SF Doug: This is a gift as Holmes is isolated on Roderick Hood and beats him twice for 20+ yards gains, plus other catches adding up to over 75 yards.
SANTONIO HOLMES – LONGEST RECEPTION
OVER 20.5 (-115)
UNDER 20.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Are you serious, Steve is Hood and I’m Holmes, Beep, Beep. Over friends.
SF Steve: UNDER. Holmes had catches of 21 yards or more in eight of 18 games. In my math, that doesn’t equate to even odds, especially in the Super Bowl, where the opposing defense is much more prepared.
HEATH MILLER - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 45.5 (-115)
UNDER 45.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. I’ll go OVER here although I believe it will be close. Miller averaged 40.9 YPG in 15 appearances overall, but 55.8 YPG over the last month. He figures to get more than average attention from Big Ben this week.
SF Doug: Go with the Over on this prop. Miller has no healthy issues, is on same page as Big Ben, and tight ends are used as safety valves more often in big games.
HEATH MILLER – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 3.5 (-105)
UNDER 3.5 (-125)
SF Doug: As tempting as this is, Miller makes three very important catches and no more, Under.
SF Steve: OVER. Miller caught 4.8 passes per game over the last month. That and my belief that Pittsburgh will have to throw to win lead me to an OVER play here.
JEFF REED – TOTAL POINTS
OVER 8.5 (+115)
UNDER 8.5 (-145)
SF Steve: UNDER. I believe eight is critical number for Reed. Once you get to the 8.5 mark, you start needing 5-6 scores to have a chance at this one. Going with the UNDER in the game, so UNDER here too.
SF Doug: If the Steelers score 30 points, that means three field goals in all likelihood and Reed goes Over comfortably.
KURT WARNER - TOTAL PASSING YARDS
OVER 255.5 (-115)
UNDER 255.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Only Philip Rivers surpassed this number all season against Pitt defense in the Divisional Round, thanks to 62 yard pass and run by Darren Sproles late in the game. Arizona can throw the pigskin, but 94 yards over season average for No. 1 pass defense, don’t think so.
SF Steve: UNDER. While I believe Warner will play well on Sunday, I can’t look past the fact that only one quarterback surpassed 255.5 yards passing on Pittsburgh this year.
KURT WARNER - TOTAL COMPLETIONS
OVER 23.5 (-115)
UNDER 23.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. It takes a lot to complete 24 passes in a game. Even if Warner does attempt 40, which I don’t think he will, hitting 60% on a team that pressures the QB like Pittsburgh is difficult.
SF Doug: Warner has averaged just over 20 completions in the playoffs, nevertheless, with Arizona trailing in the fourth quarter will have to throw the ball and settles at 25.
KURT WARNER - TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES THROWN
OVER 1.5 (-145)
UNDER 1.5 (+115)
SF Steve: OVER. As steep as the price is on this prop, Fitzgerald is on such a roll that he & Warner could beat this prop with no other help.
SF Doug: Put me down for three touchdowns for the former World League and Arena quarterback. You don’t think he’d have the same impact on the Super Bowl, nah, that’s just crazy. Over.
KURT WARNER - WILL HE THROW AN INTERCEPTION
YES (-220)
NO (+170)
SF Doug: He might even throw two, but the first one will come on throwing the ball up for grabs trying to elude James Harrison.
SF Steve: No. Pittsburgh has been as opportunistic as it has been strong on defense. However, Warner seems to have gotten over his shaky ways under pressure this season and +170 is a nice price.
EDGERRIN JAMES - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 42.5 (-130)
UNDER 42.5 (+100)
SF Doug: No doubt James would love to win a ring, but let’s not kid ourselves, he’s looking for his next stop and wants to prove he’s still worth a good salary as starting running back. Play Over.
SF Steve: OVER. Oddsmakers are giving Pittsburgh a ton of credit here. James rushed for 75.8 YPG over the last four, and Arizona has found a rededication to the ground game in the playoffs.
EDGERRIN JAMES - WILL HE SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
YES (+300)
NO (-400)
SF Steve: NO. Although I won’t play this myself because of the excessive vig, I just don’t believe there will be that many touchdowns to go around, and in my opinion, there’s a better chance they’ll come through the air.
SF Doug: It’s a heavy price, but James only goes into the end zone during warm-ups.
TIM HIGHTOWER - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 20.5 (-115)
UNDER 20.5 (-115)
SF Doug: He’ll be more useful catching than running it, Play Under.
SF Steve: OVER. Hightower has averaged 11.3 carries per game in the postseason. I don’t see Arizona changing from that recipe unless they get down big early.
J.J. ARRINGTON - TOTAL RUSHING PLUS RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 16.5 (-115)
UNDER 16.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. Yes, it is true, I am going OVER for all three Arizona running backs. I don’t think oddsmakers have taken the last three weeks Cardinals’ game into enough consideration. Plus, Arrington is the speed back that Arizona will need to mix it up.
SF Doug: Arrington will be more bundled up than an out-of-towner thinking the Grand Canyon was a warm weather stop in Arizona this time of year. Taking the Under.
LARRY FITZGERALD - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 95.5 (-115)
UNDER 95.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. It isn’t often that players get on as much of a roll has Fitzgerald has. It reminds me a lot the Jerry Rice or Terrell Owens situations in past Super Bowls. He will be thrown to early and often. For good reason, he is the best WR in the NFL right now.
SF Doug: I’ve never heard if Fitzgerald has a nickname, but Crazy Glue would work as everything he touches sticks. He’s on fire right now, you have to respect the Over.
LARRY FITZGERALD – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 6.5 (-115)
UNDER 6.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Unless Fitzgerald gets hurt or Anquan Boldin decides to run the same exact routes, this has to go Over.
SF Steve: OVER. I’m not convinced that Fitzgerald will be able to hit any real big plays, but I do believe he will be targeted at least a dozen times.
LARRY FITZGERALD – WILL HE SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
YES (-115)
NO (-115)
SF Doug: This is a safer bet than Steve being on the wrong side of the side or total of the XLIII. Yes.
SF Steve: YES. Every time Arizona gets in the red zone this is going to be a threat with the way Fitzgerald has dominated the playoffs. Pittsburgh’s corners can’t match him.
ANQUAN BOLDIN - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 68.5 (-115)
UNDER 68.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. Warner just doesn’t seem to have the same repoirte with Boldin now as he does with Fitzgerald. The former’s sideline outburst isn’t going to help either.
SF Doug: Like Anquan said about his outburst during Arizona’s winning drive against Philly, it will be no big deal when he goes Under the total. (Then it will be a BIG deal)
ANQUAN BOLDIN – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 5.5 (-130)
UNDER 5.5 (+100)
SF Doug: I can see Boldin totaling five of Warner’s tosses, no more, Under.
SF Steve: UNDER. I love the +100 line on this one as well as the lofty number of 5.5. I truly believe this is Boldin’s last game with Arizona. I don’t see him going out big.
ANQUAN BOLDIN – LONGEST RECEPTION
OVER 18.5 (-115)
UNDER 18.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Only way Boldin goes past this figure is with a calculator, punching times (X) 2.
SF Steve: UNDER. I’ll go with the trifecta under on Boldin. Many of his big yardage plays come on runs after the catch. Pittsburgh tackles much better than the NFC West.
STEVE BREASTON - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 40.5 (-115)
UNDER 40.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. Breaston is the one receiver on Arizona that can beat Pittsburgh with speed. I expect him to be targeted on deep balls at least a couple of times in this game. One hit and this goes over. It’s easy to forget that this guy had 1,006 yards in the regular season.
SF Doug: This is among my favorites, since I think Pittsburgh will focus on the main guns of Fitzgerald and Boldin. I see Breaston having upwards of 70 or more yards, surpassing Boldin easily.
NEIL RACKERS - TOTAL POINTS
OVER 7 (-115)
UNDER 7 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. I’m targeting about 20-23 points for Arizona in this game and not all the scores will be TD’s. Two FG’s puts you in a comfortable spot.
SF Doug: My math calls for six and no more and I’ll even throw in a missed field at no extra charge.
PITTSBURGH - ADJUSTED LINES
-3.5 (-160)
-10.5 (+125)
-14.5 (+210)
-17.5 (+300)
-21.5 (+450)
+3.5 (-400)
+7.5 (-800)
+10.5 (-1100)
SF Steve: -10.5 (+125). Searching purely from a value standpoint, laying the 10.5 at +125 would seem to be the best play on this list if you’re backing the Steelers.
SF Doug: Taking the +10.5 is crazy stupid based on the risk/reward ratio, thus laying -3.5 is within my wheelhouse.
ARIZONA - ADJUSTED LINES
+3.5 (+130)
+10.5 (-155)
+14.5 (-280)
+17.5 (-400)
+21.5 (-700)
-3.5 (+300)
-7.5 (+500)
-10.5 (+650)
SF Doug: A blowout just looks unrealistic, taking the +17.5 points at 1-4 odds is something I could live with.
SF Steve: +3.5 (+130). I’d probably be willing to lay the 3.5 points with the Cardinals seeing as how the Super Bowl has gone in recent years. However, I think the +3.5 would seem to make the most sense.
TOTAL POINTS - ADJUSTED TOTALS
OVER 38.5 (-320)
UNDER 38.5 (+240)
OVER 41.5 (-200)
UNDER 41.5 (+160)
OVER 52.5 (+170)
UNDER 52.5 (-220)
OVER 59.5 (+325)
UNDER 59.5 (-450)
SF Steve: UNDER 41.5 (+160). In truth, I’m of the believe that the 46.5 point total is inflated by at least 3 points, considering one of the NFL’s best defenses in history is playing. I will actually play this one myself – UNDER 41.5, getting the +160.
SF Doug: I see more points, not less because of the quarterbacks, playmakers and coaches. The Over 52.5 has a nice payout and fits my 30-24 outcome to a tee.
SUPER BOWL XLIII MVP
Adrian Wilson (Cardinals) +5000
Anquan Boldin (Cardinals) +1500
Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) +175
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Cardinals) +4000
Edgerrin James (Cardinals) +1500
Heath Miller (Steelers) +3000
Hines Ward (Steelers) +1500
James Farrior (Steelers) +3000
James Harrison (Steelers) +3000
Karlos Dansby (Cardinals) +5000
Kurt Warner (Cardinals) +250
Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) +500
Nate Washington (Steelers) +4000
Santonio Holmes (Steelers) +1500
Steve Breaston (Cardinals) +4000
Tim Hightower (Cardinals) +1800
Troy Polamalu (Steelers) +1000
Willie Parker (Steelers) +700
xz Field (Any Other Player) +800
SF Steve: FITZGERALD +500 or POLAMALU +1000. There are two dominant players in this game and both are capable of overtaking the QB’s for MVP honors. Depends who wins.
SF Doug: I’m going with the longshot. Since I started looking at this matchup, Santonio Holmes has been like a recurring dream in terms of big plays. Awesome payout if Big Ben gets him the ball in stride.
MARGIN OF VICTORY
Cardinals Win By 01-03 pts +600
Cardinals Win By 04-07 pts +800
Cardinals Win By 08-11 pts +1800
Cardinals Win By 12-15 pts +2500
Cardinals Win By 16-19 pts +5000
Cardinals Win By 20-23 pts +5000
Cardinals Win By 24-27 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 28-31 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 32-35 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 36-39 pts +10000
Cardinals Win By 40 or more +10000
Steelers Win By 01-03 pts +500
Steelers Win By 04-07 pts +400
Steelers Win By 08-11 pts +500
Steelers Win By 12-15 pts +600
Steelers Win By 16-19 pts +1200
Steelers Win By 20-23 pts +1500
Steelers Win By 24-27 pts +1500
Steelers Win By 28-31 pts +2000
Steelers Win By 32-35 pts +3000
Steelers Win By 36-39 pts +4000
Steelers Win By 40 or more +4000
SF Steve: The days of the favorite winning straight up and being an automatic cover in the Super Bowl are over. As such, I’ll take both teams to win in the 01-03 point range, Arizona at +600, Pittsburgh at +500.
SF Doug: Same message as last year, bettors make money by acquiring steady growth, not chasing longshots (I actually do like Holmes above). Backing Pittsburgh to win by 4-7 points. Boring yes, prudent no doubt.
NFL: Early Afternoon Kickoffs (1:00 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-11-14
The early slate of NFL games is loaded with key action. Several of the nine games involve teams battling for playoff positioning. Here is a quick look at those key games. Be sure to visit the LIVE ODDS, TEAM STATISTICS, and BETTING TRENDS PAGES anytime before kickoffs for more important game information.
(401) DENVER at (402) ATLANTA
Atlanta will try to maintain its perfect record at home in ’08 when it hosts Denver on Sunday, coming off a big 34-20 decision over New Orleans. The Falcons are 4-0 SU & ATS as hosts, scoring an impressive 32 PPG in those contests. That offensive proficiency could pose a problem again this week, as much like the Saints, the Broncos defense has struggled on the road. In fact, in their L8 road games overall, they are allowing 30.4 PPG. The matchup should also be concerning to HC Mike Shanahan, as his teams are just 12-22 ATS against good rushing teams averaging 4.5 YPR or more. Atlanta averages 4.6. Denver continues to lead the AFC West Division, and will have had 10 days of rest between the win at Cleveland and this game, their first in Atlanta since ’97.
(405) BALTIMORE at (406) NY GIANTS
There are a few inter-conference games Sunday where the teams are far from familiar with one another. One of those is between Baltimore & New York, as the Ravens haven’t visited the Giants since ’97. In fact, since then the teams have played in a Super Bowl and only one other time. Overall, the Ravens own a 3-0 SU & ATS record in the L3 meetings. The ‘08 clash will offer two playoff contending teams. The Ravens are among the NFL’s pleasant surprises, sitting at 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS after closing ’07 on a 1-9 SU 7 2-8 ATS slide. Perhaps most startling is the fact that HC John Harbaugh’s team is averaging 33.5 PPG over its L4. The defending champion Giants lead the NFC East, but are in the 3rd game of a 10-game season ending stretch vs. teams with a winning record.
(411) CHICAGO at (412) GREEN BAY
The NFC North Division title figures to come down to the last weeks of the season, with Minnesota, Chicago, and Green Bay all within one-game of one another heading into week 11. The latter two will go head-to-head on Sunday, with host Green Bay trying to pull back to even with the Bears. It will be the first meeting of ’08 between two of the NFL’s fiercest rivals. Packers’ coach Mike McCarthy has had great divisional success against everyone but Chicago, as he is just 1-3 SU & ATS vs. the Bears, and 10-1 ATS vs. the others. Furthermore, Chicago has won four straight in Lambeau Field. Overall, the Bears have enjoyed great success on the road in November, going 24-9 ATS in their L33. Under Lovie Smith, they own a 7-4 ATS mark in road divisional games.
(419) MINNESOTA at (420) TAMPA BAY
In week 10, while Tampa bay was enjoying its bye, Minnesota was winning its biggest game of the season, at home over Green Bay. They’ll meet this Sunday in one of week 11’s key games. Strangely, these former division rivals have played just twice since realignment following the 2001 season. The last time they met in Tampa was ‘02, the fifth straight home win & cover for the Bucs in the series. The average victory margin in those games was 15.8 PPG. This current matchup figures to come down to Minnesota’s ability to run the football. The Vikings are averaging 171.8 YPG on the ground in their L4, but Tampa has allowed just 69 YPG and 3.4 YPR in four home games in ’08. HC John Gruden’s team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS as a host, outscoring foes by a 25.2-10.7 margin.
Week 3 NFL Kickoff in Windy City (8:00 PM ET, FOX)
2008-08-21
The Chicago Bears announced early this week that Kyle Orton has been named the starting quarterback for the club to start the season. He’ll get his first chance to impress those fans in his new role on Thursday night when his team hosts the 49ers as a 3-point favorite. At last check 2/3 of the early betting action at Sportsbook.com backs Chicago.
Loyal followers of the Monsters of the Midway shrugged their shoulders in a “so what” fashion at the announcement, understanding their choices were limited to start with. Orton has been a spot starter during his tenure in Chicago and won the job by default as much as any reason, with Rex Grossman putting in a number of lackluster performances on the practice field and in two preseason outings.
The Bears have failed to win or cover both contests in August and have serious issues on the offensive line, which have not helped any of the participating quarterbacks. Top draft choice, tackle Chris Williams' rookie season is in jeopardy following back surgery. Because John Tait played so poorly at the left tackle position a season ago, the Bears have thus far kept him at his more natural right tackle spot, after presuming Williams was the answer in that spot. Journeyman John St. Clair has been inserted at left tackle and the offensive line understandably showed little continuity in loss at Seattle. The Chicago defense has been sliced and diced in yielding 384 yards a game in first two tries. Though these games don’t count (unless your betting), this has to be area of some concern to Bears coaches. Da Bears are 0-5 ATS against teams from the NFC in the preseason.
One has to either give props or question the wisdom of not naming starting quarterback like head coach Mike Nolan has done thus far. Nolan promised open competition, installing Mike Martz’s offense and he has been true to his word, in spite of what many thought was lip service based on investment in number one 2005 pick Alex Smith. Insiders report Smith has been more up and down in practice than a San Francisco trolley car learning the offense and vagabond signal caller, J.T. O'Sullivan has been the most consistent quarterback in camp, having the benefit of being with Martz last year in Detroit. Word is Martz in not impressed with Smith’s decision-making and has been too mechanical.
The 49ers have been exceptionally pleased with wide receiver Josh Morgan, who has made the most of opportunities, due to injuries in the receiving core. With San Francisco having lost at Oakland in week one, the Niners are 4-6-1 ATS in last 11 road excursions. O’Sullivan will make his third straight start for San Fran and might be setting himself up to make first ever regular season start at the not so tender age of 29.
Sportsbook.com has Chicago as three-point favorites, with total at 37. Fox Sports will have the telecast at 8 Eastern from Soldier Field and the Bears are 8-20 ATS in the last two weeks of the preseason.
StatFox Power Line –Bears by 1
Chicago at Washington
2007-12-06
Bad got worse for the Redskins this past Sunday when Buffalo beat the grieving team in the finals seconds. The loss was the 4th straight for HC Joe Gibbs’ club, who is stricken by the death of stud S Sean Taylor, and will have attended his funeral just days prior to this Thursday dual with Chicago.
With games remaining vs. three playoff caliber clubs after this week, the matchup vs. Chicago has become a must-win. Fortunately for Washington, the Bears are reeling too, having suffered a key defeat against the Giants, of the late comeback variety as well. Chicago comes into this game on a slide of 6-23 ATS in December road contests. However, the road team in this head-to-head series is 4-0 ATS, and the Redskins are 0-8 ATS the L2 seasons vs. teams with a losing record.
Chicago and Washington are hanging unto the hope they can put together a late season run to snag the last wild card berth available. Chicago is trying to do it with mirrors as the defense is ranked in the lower 20’s in yards allowed, being gashed on the ground and thru the air. Rex Grossman is back in control of the offense and seems to have a more mature approach to the game, being less a risk taker. The running game has been negligible all season and won’t improve with career back-up Adrian Peterson.
Washington is still dealing with the shock and grief of losing Sean Taylor. He was maturing as a person by all accounts with first child and coming into his own as a safety in new role. Joe Gibbs has to have his team grieve in private because the Bears or nobody else on the schedule is going to cut Washington any slack because of this senseless tragedy. The defensive line has played with more fervor of late and will need to step up the rest of the season. The offense line has become more cohesive after the ton of early season injuries.
Keys to the Game- On this Thursday night week 13 opener, the Washington offense is showing progress with Clinton Portis becoming more a force in the running game. With the Bears less than ferocious run defense, Washington could produce a balanced attack. Whichever quarterback does a better job protecting the ball to prevent turnovers, there team will have an edge. Grossman has the assets on the perimeter to attack the Redskins secondary that had problems with the deep ball before the upheaval. Chicago is on the road on a short week and is 2-8 ATS after two consecutive home games. Washington is a meager 1-8 ATS this month off non-division victory.
Trends
Chicago is 6-23 ATS in road games in December games.
Washington is 6-2 ATS against the Bears.
StatFox Pick – Washington covers